000
AXNT20 KNHC 092312
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the W coast of Africa along 
19W from 04N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection is near the
southern end of the wave axis. 

A second tropical wave is along 45W from 06N to 14N, and is 
moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
axis.

Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its
axis is along 58W/59W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated convection is noted S of 10N between 
50W and 58.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W and continues
southwestward to 08N20W, then westward to 07N33W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N33W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen 
from 03N to 08N between 20W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends across the Gulf waters supporting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas. Showers and
thunderstorms are affecting parts of Florida. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
across the Gulf region through the next several days. Moderate 
to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of 
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, locally 
and briefly strong at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere
in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate 
winds across the remainder of the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please, see
the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

As it is normal for this time of the year, convection has develop
over parts of the Greater Antilles due to daytime heating, local
sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting. Similar convective
activity is occurring over parts of Central America. A diffluent
pattern aloft is also helping to induce this convection. Elsewhere,
shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across
the basin producing isolated to to scattered passing showers.

The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Atlantic
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades over 
the south-central and SW Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft, 
except for 9 to 10 ft seas analyzed offshore of NW Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin along
with moderate seas, except for the NW Caribbean where light to 
gentle winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will prevail 
through the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong 
trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central 
basin, spreading westward through the week as a tropical wave 
currently in the Tropical N Atlantic moves through the basin, 
except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the 
evening hours. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas will be rough with the strongest winds, as well 
as in the Tropical N Atlantic, continuing through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the entire Atlantic forecast 
area. Fresh to strong trades are along the southern periphery of
the ridge, particularly S of 20N W of 40W. Rough seas are within
these winds. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are N of 
Hispaniola, including the Turks and Caicos Islands to about 23N 
with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build 
modestly SW to S into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, 
then weaken slightly thereafter. Expect fresh to strong winds to 
pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola, with 
pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere 
south of 22N through the early part of the week until the high 
weakens. Winds may briefly increase to fresh to strong off NE 
Florida tonight near a frontal trough off the Carolinas.

$$
GR